The latest theory over Big Brown's Belmont loss centers around one of his shoe's being dislodged early in the race. It's true, the pictures show not only the loose shoe on Brownie's rear right foot, but Guadalcanal stepping on that foot after they came out of the gate and Big Brown veered out in front of the horse. But, why is no one just as seriously addressing the photographic evidence about why Big Brown veered out in the first place? After all, the photos also show that it's very likely that when Big Brown saw the starter standing out on the track in front of him, he was somehow alarmed, causing him to veer away from the man and in front of Guadalcanal, thereby disrupting what was supposed to be his charge straight to the lead up the rail.

There's a lot of mutual respect in this sport--especially when everybody's different jobs provide them with daily experience about something that someone else may not even have a chance to learn a little about. Maybe no one really wants to hold starter Roy Williamson's feet up to the fire over why he had to stand out on the track in the 2008 Belmont Stakes. Maybe there's something embarassing about questioning a professional who's started many races before. But this could have been the biggest race in 30 years, and the way the favorite's troubled trip left him unable to tackle a mediocre run away is going to leave everything open to scrutiny until the end of time.

Maybe the starter has stood out on the track before, out a ways in front the rail like he did in the Belmont, and nobody noticed horses reacting to him. They leave the gate running gamely, and it's certainly hard to notice, much less interpret, their body language as they rush by the starter. Now everybody's going over the photographs and the slow-motion replays to see what happened to Big Brown in the Belmont and what may have caused him trouble. Well, how about when Big Brown comes out of the gate, and almost immediately veers out away from the rail--to his left--as his head turns to his right towards the starter standing on the track in front of him? The pictures and the video illustrate this very clearly. Could Brownie have been looking at something else? Possibly. But why ignore the probabilty that the starter may be responsible for startling the horse? Starters used to be kept off the track in little stands, and if the starter was off the track in the Belmont Stakes, there would be no question over whether or not his standing on the track was a problem for Big Brown.

You can't tell the horses not to step on another horse's foot when he veers out in front of you, but you can tell the starters to stay off the track.

Personally, I doubt the camera-friendly Big Brown was alarmed by a rather non-descript-looking array of cameras behind the rail. There was a guy on the track. When a rider falls in front of them, usually horses will avoid them. A guy was standing on the track. Horses are flighty, and one of the theories about how Ruffian broke her leg in the battle of the sexes match race is that she was startled by a bird that flew in front of her up the track. A guy was standing on the track in the 2008 Belmont Stakes.

I can't say with certainty that the starter is responsible for causing Brownie to veer out, but I'm certainly concerned about it and wouldn't want it to happen again. Big Brown was a heavy favorite to win the Belmont, and even if you used him as a key on top in exotics, with Denis of Cork a deserving second-favorite, you had to go even deeper in the exotics and wager a good amount to get a return with some exciting value--you had to make a considerable investment. Next time their key horse is on the rail, do horseplayers want to see the starter walk up the track, off the rail, and stand out in the one-path?

After Big Brown veered out in front of Guadalcanal, that horse stepped on his back right foot, probably loosening the shoe. Because Big Brown's charge up the rail was interrupted, Da' Tara--from outside--was able to take the lead. After Big Brown passed the starter, his charge resumed in full and he almost ran up on Da' Tara's heels. He was very willing, and his jockey had to reign him in to prevent clipping heels, and now he was boxed in because of Tale of Ekati... and so the rest of Big Brown's losing Belmont trip goes.

Maybe it could have been different, and Big Brown would have won the Triple Crown that day.

Pretty please, with sugar on top, keep the starter off the track.

Tags: BigBrown BelmontStakes

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