Big Brown is a deserving favorite to win the Belmont Stakes, already bet down to 1-4. But I don't like anything in this race to beat him, so I'll still use Big Brown to win the Test of Champions, and try to make a nice profit through the exotics. The trifecta and superfecta look open to some good prices beating horses favored for third and fourth: Tale of Ekati and Icabad Crane. Denis of Cork is the second choice to beat in the exacta, and may be worth taking a shot at there too.

Obviously, I'm supporting Big Brown on top. The undefeated Kentucky Derby and Preakness champ only has a couple of questions to answer. Does he have enough left for the Belmont, and can he get the distance? The way Desormeaux piloted Brownie in the Derby and Preaknesssaved and trained him perfectly for the Belmont Stakes. The key race and replay is the Kentucky Derby. Big Brown deliberately came from the farthest post out; purposely raced wide, off the pace throughout the race; easily rolled to the front at the top of the lane; and was full of run as he crossed the finish. After the wire? He was still eating it up. It's weird how easily he struck the front in the Derby and Preakness. He casually rolls forward, and then the next thing you know he steps right out into the lead. He doesn't "explode". He calmly shifts gears, accelerates, and then just speeds away.

Who can stop Big Brown? Casino Drive looked to have the best chance, but he was scratched this morning due to discomfort from a stone bruise on his left hind. The Japanese colt showed respectable talent when winning the Peter Pan Stakes, and is most compelling is that he's related to the past two Belmont Stakes winners, Rags to Riches (2007), and Jazil (2007). It must be said that the colt did have more to prove--he did not beat the most challenging company in both of his starts, getting easy trips both times.

Denis of Cork is now second choice, and I liked what Calvin Borel did with him in the Kentucky Derby. Robby Albarado is back on him for the Belmont. I like Robby, but Calvin rode this horse like a motorcycle in the Derby. He will be mid field, but closer to Big Brown than three or four others.

I don't have a lot of confidence in the rest. There are a few horses in here that I don't like, and comparing them to others in here did not improve my opinion of them. Maiden Guadalcanal can run all day... slowly. He will be no match against better foes. Da' Tara will be a pace factor forced to drop out later. Wood Memorial winner Tale of Ekati is not a favorite of mine. The Wood he won was a fiasco. Ekati tracks the pace and has to be there when better foes meltdown. He can get rundown here, but can the rest even get the distance? Ekati can still fill out the superfecta.

The Preakness horses, Macho Again and Icabad Crane, just don't make sense to me returning in the Belmont. They weren't superstars, and they just ran their heart out to get second and third; and now they are asked to go 1 1/2 miles. These are horses I profited from in the Preakness, but today it's a very different race. I think they are about even with each other--maybe Macho is better, but for some reason I think Icabad is better for the Belmont. It's a little disorienting.

I felt like Ready's Echo is a key horse. He looks good compared to others. He's a closer who made up a lot of ground to finish third in the Peter Pan Stakes won by Casino Drive, but he hung enough in the stretch that he couldn't beat the stubborn pace-setter Mint lane for second. Jockey Johnny Velazquez won last year's Belmont on Rags to Riches.

Any longshots adding value in the tri or superfecta? Anak Nakal hasn't done anything this year, but he might be used in the slot for fourth. If he has any run in him at all, the Belmont stretch might give him enough room to catch up.

I'm not a gimmicks player ordinarily. I skip races where there is low value on top and I can't find an overlay with a convincing chance to either beat the favorite or second choice. But I'd hate to miss an opportunity to intensify a Triple Crown win by not playing the exotics for some good prices. My strategy is to use horses I think have a chance with value in the next slot. Something like this:

TRI: Big Brown/Denis of Cork/Beat Tale of Ekati with some better prices--I really don't like Ekati anyway

EXACTA: Big Brown/better price on a horse I like other than Denis

SUPER: Big Brown/Denis of Cork/Low-priced horses I like for third/Better prices

Best thing I can do in this post is wish you luck with your own Belmont bets today. Go, Brownie!

Tags: Bigbrown Belmontstakes Triplecrown 2008

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