The Preakness looks like a terrible race to bet. Undefeated Kentucky Derby winner Big Brown towers over his 11 Preakness Stakes rivals like Godzilla. Already bet down to .10 for your dollar this morning, we're looking for value in the exotics. There is no really compelling second choice to put under Brownie in the exacta. It looks like there should be enough confusion over a second choice that the exotics could be pretty good, and for value you need to beat this order: Big Brown/Gayego, Kentucky Bear. Icabad Crane and Riley Tucker may also get boxed in many exotics.

I won't be trying to beat Big Brown on top. Brownie has won all four of his lifetime starts by more than 33 lengths combined. A glance at the other contenders' past performances could make one wonder if all of their wins combined would even come close to that. And in his previous two races, the Florida Derby and the Kentucky Derby, Big Brown defied far outside posts that many horses in history had no chance from. He'll define "heavy favorite" in the Preakness, where he will come from gate 6 (drew post #7). I see some posts online concerned about Big Brown getting dirt in his face for the first time from this post, but I'm not worried. He had plenty of opportunities to wind up with dirt in his face before, but instead he grabbed a good spot. If he really doesn't like dirt in his face and gets some this time, I think he can take over up front.

I like Lexington Stakes winner Behindatthebar and wanted to use him for second. I think he has a lot of ability for second, but he's out of the Preakness with a foot bruise. Deciding between the other contenders has been tough.

One of my dilemmas is over Kentucky Bear, who only has three starts to judge him by--one of them very poor--but he stands to improve. This could be the race where he ripens up. I'll give him a chance in the exotics.

Arkansas Derby winner Gayego demands respect for a good Derby campaign, but coming from post 19, he tracked Big Brown in the Kentucky Derby only to go empty after six furlongs. Today he comes from gate 11 (drew post 12). Has the speed to get him into a good spot, but needs a good trip all the way around.

Derby Trial winner Macho Again will get a chance from me. Hasn't won a two-turn race, but he should be well-placed for a good trip. In the Trial he traveled mid-field most of the way, then charged into contention as they came to the top of the lane. Both Majestic Warrior--from the outside--and Kodiak Kowboy--inside--tried to steal his wallet, but he split them and kicked his way to a good finish. Go, Macho. I'll use him in the exacta and tri.

Icabad Crane - I think this horse may be an underlay factor in the exacta, bet down to a price lower than his ability warants. Getting a lot of respect after his Federico tesio Stakes win at pimlico, and jockey Jeremy Rose is winning at a 30% clip over the course. But big fish are coming into his small pond today. He should travel mid-field here, and can make a strong run late, but I think his best run will come up too short. I'll use him for third or fourth.

I like Riley Tucker to stalk the pace and make a good late effort. I like Racecar Rhapsody to close up on the leaders. Not sure about Yankee Bravo.

I don't want to use Hey Byrn, Giant Moon, and Tres Borrachos.

Friday, I constructed this order (first/second/third or fourth):

7/12, (4), 1, 10/6, 13, 11,2,3,9

Saturday morning I thought I should put Kentucky Bear in the slot for second, get rid of Gayego and Yankee Bravo who is in parantheses there. The horses in the second slot are eligible for third too, so it looks like I'm back to my late betting again.

I spent too much time with this race. There are better opportunities in other races today without this mega-favorite/questionable-second problem. I will wager less than $50 and hope to get some good value, and wait for the Belmont to bet on my stronger opinions. But, I am looking forward to this race, and I hope Big Brown takes us to the Triple Crown.

Tags: Preakness

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