It says something about this year's Kentucky Derby field that the favorite, Florida Derby winner Big Brown, has only three lifetime starts. This field of 20 is full of what now look like slower developers. Perhaps you might take a chance and bet on other contenders who look like this will finally be the race where they blossom. On the other hand, Big Brown has won all three of his races in very impressive dominant performances that no other horse in the field has equaled.

Throw out Big Brown's first two starts--a 63k maiden and a 1500n1x allowance--and you are still left with perhaps the most impressive and memorable Kentucky Derby prep of 2008. That race was Big Brown's stakes debut, and he drew an impossible post. No other horse had won from as far out as post 12 at Gulfstream. He was sent to claim a better position inside, and quickly grabbed the lead. Then he set quick fractions that would have quickly left his foes empty if they had tried to set such a pace themselves. In fact, foes in company behind his pace didn't last. Smooth Air, who left post 2, was smartly taken back off the pace and later made a beautiful route for second behind Big Brown, who won by five lengths in the fastest Derby prep of the year.

Big Brown had foot problems. Big Brown drew an impossible post. Big Brown was inexperienced and coming along a little late on the Derby trail. Watch the Florida Derby and you will see that Big Brown wasn't affected any of that, and didn't have a care in the world but to run. And he did it with awe-inspiring speed the whole way, never weakening. Talk about striking the front, the horses he took the lead from were completely at his mercy. This guy not only has speed and stamina, he has shown the type of talent that's intimidating. The 134th running of the Kentucky Derby is his race.

How can you beat Big Brown? Either he has an inexplicably empty performance, like Pyro in the Blue Grass Stakes; or something goes wrong, like Monba in the Fountain of Youth; or he weakens enough that he can't hold on to the lead, like Bob Black Jack in the San Felipe. The friggin' San Felipe? It's not even 1 1/8 miles. It's really impossible for me to compare Big Brown to the other contenders. None of these other horses are like Big Brown. Even if they ran a greater number of "classier" races, they did not dominate like Big Brown did at Gulfstream.

A compelling second choice on the morning line and early pool is Santa Anita Derby winner Colonel John. CJ has twice as many lifetime starts as Big Brown with four wins and two seconds. He likes to run off the pace, and I like how he took down the Santa Anita Derby. When he makes his move on the leaders, he squats down ready to rev up and lunge, like an action pose out of a comic book. His route to the Derby is classy with four stakes, including two Grade 1 victories--he won three of those stakes with a second in the other, where he was splitting foes late. He's never raced on real dirt before, but has been looking right at home in works at Churchill Downs. He can win if his attack out of the second turn is well-timed, and he gets a path to rev up--he'll be flying. He'll be beaten if he's too late.

Pyro, favored for a long time since his three-year-old debut this past winter, figures to be third favorite--supporters throwing out his lack of performance over the Blue Grass Stakes Polytrack, where he finished tenth. His works over Churchill's dirt have helped give his fans a sign that he's glad to be back on dirt, and ready for the Kentucky Derby. In his Risen Star and Louisiana Derby wins he looked like he just dropped in at the top of the lane, fresh and sprinting past rivals with a full tank. He should be closing late, but the problem is that he runs very late. Traffic has almost stopped him before. He can get out nicely, but can't be too late in the Kentucky Derby. He needs to keep better company in the second turn and be in striking range of the pressers and leaders coing out. Can he do that and still run like he's fresh, or will that use up too much of this closer's powerful reserve?

Z Fortune and Gayego are compelling others. Z passed foes and took second to Gayego in the Arkansas Derby--Gayego wearing down Tres Borrachos for the win. But Gayego had the benefit of an inside post. Z Fortune finally gets a nice post in the Derby, after three consecutive posts from hell at Oaklawn and Fairgrounds (the 11, 10, and 9 holes). This guy is tough. He has raced as wide as anybody and just could not get a break. It was Robby Albarado who piloted him to a nice gutsy finish in the Arkansas Derby, and Robby is back on board for the Derby. Of course, we remember Robby on Curlin last year--who finished a very respectable third in the Derby in only his fourth start, and went on to beat the Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense in the Preakness Stakes.

The rest of the field is full of bigger if's. But there are some nice prices I like--one to win, others to fill exotics. Let me run down the field:

1. Cool Coal Man - He should start behind the leaders and get a decent spot. I think the speed will extend in a way that leaves him too far behind to run up on them in the lane.

2. Tale of Ekati - I don't like Barcaly's Taggs contenders this year. Ekati will plod around the middle of the field, and maybe he could get lucky enough to fall into the superfecta, but I see better horses coming up with a better run late.

3. Anak Nakal - He'll take a backseat and hasn't shown much of any late ability in Derby preps. Complete throw out for me.

4. Court Vision - He'll travel near the back too. I liked him at two, but in his three-year-old debut his past performances did not look equal to the better prospects. He took third in that race--the Fountain of Youth--and it was a nice looking move, but nobody else was moving. I did have some hope for him in the Wood Memorial and gave him a chance to graduate and win on the 2008 Derby trail. The stable had a rabbit to wear down front-running War Pass and set up Court Vision perfectly. I don't know what the hell he did in that race, because he was absent until the second turn. He did muster third with a wide move in the turn, but I think he should have won, and he needs to be way closer. So now it's come to this: blinkers on. They're trying a new trick in the Derby and I don't like it this late in the game. Could be useful in the superfecta.

5. Eight Belles - I was very disappointed Rags to Riches didn't run in last year's Derby, but Eight Belles is not Rags to Riches. I like her running style, but think she may not be fast enough to win. I haven't followed her too closely, and last week I read that she won her last four races by 30 lengths, that kind of hype will lower her price. So I start looking at the replays. She won her last race in a respectable time by 3/4 of a length. The race before that, 1 1/4 length. Obviously the other two races were going to be lower class or much lesser competition by somewhere around 15 lengths each. She should be up with the stalkers. I may use her in the exotics. The connections didn't like her in the 12-hole for the Oaks and hoped for a better position to run her from in the Derby. What kind of a vote of confidence is that?

6. Z Fortune. Should be in stalking range. This guy could turn out to be a popular runner the rest of the year. As long as you don't believe in the bounce theory--he's been making big efforts from far posts, finally succeeding in the Arkansas Derby--he looks like a very respectable contender. Trifecta possibilty, maybe better if leaders drop off.

7. Big Truck - Big maybe for the superfecta. I think others will do better though. I know there's a super high-five, but I'm not considering that ticket.

8. Visionaire - I gave him a chance to beat Pyro in the Risen Star. He was well-placed, but only had a slight ability to hang on for third. I never used him again. He went back to traveling farther back and he closed to win a miserable Gotham by a nose. Last time out he was so far back in the Blue Grass Stakes that he had to come ten-wide into the lane. Wide trips can be impressive when a horse finishes well, and many are impressed that Visionaire finished 5th there. Well, if he was inside he would have finished better, and if he wasn't so far back, he wouldn't have been ten wide. He can't be fighting his way clear around a wall of foes in the Kentucky Derby. If you think he'll be better placed and make a route inside the lane instead of far outside of it, you could take a chance with him. Superfecta, maybe tri if I want to use him.

9. Pyro - A true closer who will travel behind and make his run late. Maybe too late, with front-runners backing up and stalkers making their moves right in front of him, the leaders and stalkers getting away from him. He must be placed better in the second turn, and he will have to do more there.

10. Colonel John - I hope to see him in good stalking range around the middle of the field, better placed than Pyro and Visionaire. He may be too late to beat the leaders , or he may be in the perfect spot as they weaken. Should get a lot of play in the exacta.

11. Z Humor - The funny one of the Z horses. Z Humor could be up close to the pace, but he's not a real threat. He can't press the pace and he won't last. Throw out.

12. Smooth Air - I bet nothing but exactas with Big Brown keyed to win the Florida Derby, but missed Smooth Air. I feel like this was probably the biggest miss for me on this year's Derby trail. A combination of two things contribute to that. For one, I had the impression that Smooth Air was a sprinter not destined for greatness beyond 7 furlongs. The Hutcheson he won was not a big memory for me--the horse who won it last year also left me with the impression that it was a race for sprinters who would come up short in longer Derby preps. Recently I've watched his race replays and I've got to say I like him. He misbehaved in the paddock at Churchill the other day, so I've become cautious about him. But I like what jockey Manoel Cruz does with him--watch the Florida Derby. I see him traveling in the middle. The far post may leave him out of the exotics though. It's a shame when you just get onto a horse and then his next race looks like it will leave him in the cold, but I might have to leave him out.

13. Bob Black Jack - Should be a pace factor up front, taking a good spot inside of the other speed is a good probability, and he can last pretty good. Never raced on real dirt. I don't think he will last long enough on the lead to win. Can't forget him in the exotics.

14. Monba - I gave him a chance to win Fountain of Youth, where he did nothing, and eagerly anticipated his next race. Why did I keep the faith? He looked like a good contender going into the Fountain of Youth, and he had very acceptable excuses for not doing anything in that race--another horse clipped his heels, and he flipped his palette. He won the Blue Grass Stakes next time. I like his running style, he should be pressing or stalking. He won at Churchill Downs last November, pressing after coming out of the 11 post to win a mile by a neck in 1:35. His odds should be good enough for getting great value on a win bet.

15. Adriano - Traveling somewhere in front of the closers, I don't see him as a big factor. This is a guy whose connections didn't even want to run this turf/poly horse in the Derby, then when the Derby favorites weaken or drop out he gets a chance. Not very compelling.

16. Denis of Cork - His Southwest Stakes victory was the type of thing that sets you up to wait to bet him again. He looked promising going into that race, and it set him up on the Derby trail. Unfortunately, his connections didn't want him to prove much more, and believed he only needed one more graded stakes prep to prepare him to peak in the Derby. Instead of running in the Rebel, he was put on hiatus, and when he finally next ran in the Hawthorne Derby, he looked like he was still on the bench. He should be traveling in the middle, and he's supposed to close on the leaders very professionally. I don't like the campaign, and don't think he deserves to win. If they think he has one big race in him this could be it as they planned, but he couldn't even pass Atoned at Hawthorne. The pace setter beat him by more than eight lengths. He couldn't do any worse than that. Risky to use, risky to let bite you in the ass.

17. Cowboy Cal -- The front-running turf horse will want to be a pace factor. Capable. He would have to hang on, and I think he can be used to fill out the exotics.

18. Recapturetheglory - I hate writing this horse's long-ass name. He wants to be up front, but I think he is beaten back by better company here. I'll let him beat me in the exotics, I don't want to use him.

19. Gayego - Another pace factor. He doesn't need the lead. Not much to judge by with only two starts over a mile. Doesn't figure to win the fight for the lead in the end, but pretty respectable.

20. Big Brown - It can truely be said that this horse has a crappy name, but I like him. As I said at the top of this analysis, it's his race. Of course he has vulnerabilities. I can't bet him to win at low odds, but he looks like he'll control the pace--even if he's not on the lead right away, everyone will be playing to him; and if they try to outgun him they'll disintegrate, if they let him loose and wait for him to tire, they might as well go straight back to their hotel room and watch the rest of the race there.

I can't wait, this Derby will be hella fun.

Tags: Bigbrown Coloneljohn Kentuckyderby 134 2008

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