Only seven contenders will square off in the $500,000 Illinois Derby at Hawthorne, which was setting up to draw a larger field. Did undefeated Denis of Cork really scare away so many rivals? He's only been raced three times, and won all three of those lifetime starts by barely more than three lengths combined. The likely second-choice in the Illinois Derby will be the Pletcher-trained Atoned, second in the Tampa Bay Derby. Other familiar names on the 2008 Derby trail likely to draw money are Delta Jackpot co-winner Z Humor, and the always struggling Golden Spikes who will not target the Kentucky Derby.

Denis of Cork, a son of Harlan's Holiday, impressed last time out with a steady rally for the win in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn.

His perfect and patient stalking trip combined with his energetic rally in the Southwest convincingly make Denis of Cork look like a cinch to stretch out to a longer distance and leave foes in his wake again.

Atoned had an uninspired War Pass abreast and to the inside of him during the Tampa Bay Derby. He traveled wide (outside of three rival paths), but he remained on target and struck with gusto, leading into the lane only to hang in the stretch and get beat a neck by Big Truck.

The rest of the field is split between those who have been shuffling on the Derby trail and those new to it. It looks like an unplayable race, and I was inlcined not to play it. However... Atoned flattens out in the stretch. He gets there, but just hasn't mustered the kind of stretch run that keeps him going away decisively, and gets caught late. I won't hammer the Denis over Atoned exacta. There is another...

Real Appeal is a stalker who should be coming into the stretch intently, and the price should be right if you like mid-to-longshots with a chance. He's 8-1 on the morning line. He could be a good value play in the exacta. Real Appeal's trainer, Tom Amoss, has been winning at a %32 clip in 2008. Rider John Graham has been having just as much success on Amoss's charges. In Real Appeal's first start for Amoss, and his three-year-old debut, he came three-wide to win an 11-horse, one mile, $50,000 stakes by 2 1/2 lengths on March 1st. He bulleted 5 furlongs in 59 seconds at Churchill Downs on March 31st, fastest of thirteen.

The Illinois Derby will have exacta, trifecta, and even superfecta wagering. You could get some value out of this seven horse race if you play against the obvious choices in the obvious spots: Denis/Atoned/Z Humor, Golden Spikes.

Z Humor. Hard to remember who is who between this guy and Z Fortune sometimes. They sound like rejected names for bad radio stations. Z Humor is not too bad, he can be very competitive and take the lead. He has not been able to hang onto it though. Might strike too early, and I feel like he'll be overtaken by at least two. Ideally, I would like to beat him for third if I play the trifecta.

Hawthorne's leading rider will have the mount on Golden Spikes. Sounds painful, doesn't it? They should be pressing the pace, but I doubt they break the exacta. He'll be a better value than Z Humor wherever you put him, but you can't wheel too many horses anywhere in a field this small or you'll risk losing even if you win when they come home in the obvious order.

The other two are Recapturethglory and Instill. Instill needs slower rivals all the way around to be a factor. Recapturetheglory may be up close early and should be wiped out after being challenged for the pace.

Tags: Denisofcork Illinoisderby Atoned Zhumor Realappeal 2008 Kentuckyderby

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