The Florida Derby looks pretty wide open, and is a good chance for new contenders to emerge for this year's Kentucky Derby. As a horseplayer, I'm excited about these new prospects, and I'm still looking for a hero to beat Pyro in this year's Derby. As far as money on this race, I need the Florida Derby to answer questions about quite a few of these contenders. I'll use a few horses and play for the most profit with little money risked. You could make a good arguement for several in here, so this race should be a good value. Don't get crazy thinking you have to give them all a chance.

The Allowance horses are ready to come up with something big here. They need the graded earnings from the Florida Derby to make it into the Kentucky Derby. Horses in this field who've won money in stakes don't look to much more impressive to me.

Fierce Wind is a pace-setter and should control it from the rail here. I wouldn't be terribly surpirsed if he wired it, but I think his lead will be overcome in the stretch and I would rather not use him on top, but he figures to be too low a value for a win saver.

We have some newcomers who need to answer a lot of questions here. I can't take Tomcito off of his Peruvian success under slow times. His running style could put him in the money somewhere third or fourth. There are others who look very deserving and have been working on it, so if Tomicto wins I'll be super pissed.

Big Brown and Hey Byrn are a couple of other relatively unknown quantities. I'll use Big Brown on the top. He draws a far post, and Barbaro is the only horse to ever win this 1 1/8 mile distance at Gulfstream from as far out as post 10. But, Big Brown has shown supernatural speed in his previous two starts. He could be up close early, and not too wide. Hey Byrn looks good for a piece of the money. I don't think I have enough confidence to put him on top in a field this size yet.

Todd Pletcher brings us Face The Cat--formerly trained by Helen Pitts--and this will have to be Todd's best horse on the Derby Trail, because the others have been failing. If Monba can't return, and Face The Cat bombs, he'll have to try his turf horse Cowboy Cal in the run for the roses. Face the Cat comes from post 11. I don't think he'll be as fast as Big Brown and will be left wide. Still needs to prove what he can do for me, but if you like him, I think he's worth a shot. He might be in a saver for me.

Elysium Fields almost beat Cool Coal Man last time at Gulfstream. He gave it a second fight and he figures to be on everyone's tickets for at least second. I think this race will be even tougher, and I'd like to let him beat me if he's better than third. There's too much to be proven by the contenders in this race to bet without good value.

I'm not a Majestic Warrior fan. When he won 7 furlongs he got a huge speed figure... in a four-horse race. Ridiculous. Despite his favorable breeding influences, he has failed to be a factor in races eight-panels or more. I'll try progressive thinking on others here today.

I'm rooting for the newcomers here. I want to see a new hero emerge.

I think this is going to be a very exciting race, and it's on ESPN2, so don't miss it.

Tags: Floridaderby Bigbrown 2008 Facethecat

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