Tomcito is a mysterious foreign invader targeting the Florida Derby as his North American debut, and he's nominated to the 2008 Triple Crown. As a two-year-old in 2007, Tomcito drove away to win two Peruvian races at classic distances close to our own Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes. Tomcito is Kentucky Bred, and his sire is Street Cry, the same father of last year's Kentucky Derby winner, Street Sense. Trainer and bloodstock agent Dante Zanelli paid $7,500 for a yearling Tomcito, bought for Zanelli's uncle, trainer Juan Suarez. Tomcito won his first two races by a combined 26 lengths before stepping up to stakes class and finishing second in his only loss. Here are a couple of Tomcito replays from the Peruvian Triple Crown, which he started in the second leg.

Tomcito wins the Classico Ricardo Ortiz de Zevallos in October, 2007



Tomcito wins the Derby Nacional in November, 2007



Obviously, he can handle the distances. I like to see this kind of running style at these distances, coming off the pace to run foes down easily. The problem is, how do I know it wasn't too easy? Nobody seems to be claiming that Tomcito beat high quality horses in Peru, but again, I don't know. Many would just as easily claim Invasor beat nothing in Uruguay, but his North American campaign made him one of my all-time favorite racehorses and he went on to win the Dubai World Cup in an almost record time.

Time is all I have against Tomcito until after he faces known quantities in the Florida Derby. The 2,000 meter Clasico Ricardo Ortiz de Zevallos is not quite 1 1/4 miles (9.94 furlongs), Tomcito finished that race in 2:09.60. Not quite the greatest two minutes in sports. By the way, Invasor went on to win the 2,000 meter Dubai World Cup in under two minutes.

The Peruvian Derby Nacional is 2,400 meters, nearly 1 1/2 miles like the Belmont Stakes. Tomcito won the Derby Nacional in 2:35.40. By contrast, 2:28.74 was the final time for the Belmont Stakes won by Rags to Riches last year.

Fractions are harder to come by and to compare with North American Thoroughbred races. But the slow final times make me wonder about Tomcito's ability to win on fast tracks, or against better competition. The Derby Nacional looks pretty competitive and Tomcito overcame some traffic problems, but that's Tomcito's stablemate setting the pace, and setting up Tomcito, who went on to win by 3 1/2 lengths.

To me, he looks like no cinch. He might have a great running style for the Triple Crown, coming from behind to pick off weakened foes. Or, he might not have faced a good pace before at any time in a race. Drop him into a clever field with some speed and we might see him forced to come keep up at a pace he can't handle, or not able to catch up with it as they come down the stretch.

Tomcito has been turning in some decent works, which is very important because he hasn't raced since last November. On March 17, Tomcito worked 5 furlongs in 58 4/5. It certainly beats 1:01, but I don't know how consistently he does this. Anybody can work almost any horse pretty fast, it helps to see consistency that shows the horse is doing it on their own. I don't know if Tomcito's trainer normally works his horses very fast. On March 10, Tomcito breezed a mile in 1:39 4/5. It's a good time, and the horse is obviously fit. In February, 2006 Kentucky Derby winning jockey Edgar Prado worked Tomcito at four furlongs in :50 3/5. Prado expressed that he had some of the same questions about the slower tracks Tomcito won over in Peru. Prado won't be riding anything in the Florida Derby because he'll be riding in several races at the Dubai World Cup, but he probably would have stuck with Hey Byrn.

What does all of this mean to me as a horseplayer? Personally, I think Tomcito will be a late factor, but not ready to win the Florida Derby against horses who have not only been training, but racing for a spot in the Kentucky Derby. His running style could help him finish in the money, or at least the superfecta. I'll have to wait until the Florida Derby PPs for the other contenders are out before I decide if he's eligible for better than fourth or third. If you like him to win, he should be a good value thanks to other hyped horses like Big Brown and Hey Byrn--and Elysium Fields, who came close to winning last time out. But if Tomcito loses, even respectably, he should still be a fair price next time out, and with a past performance I can better measure him by.

Tags: Tomcito Floridaderby 2008 Horse Racing Horseracing

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