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Title: 2009 Kentucky Derby Trail Watch List
Tags: kentucky derby kentucky-derby 2009 baffert midshipman nicanor
Blog Entry: The Kentucky Derby trail is my favorite season in horse racing, and with the Breeders Cup over--and this year's Kentucky Derby winner, Big Brown, already retired to a stud farm--I'm ready to start keeping track of horses that may show up on the 2009 Derby trail, and in the 135th running of the Kentucky Derby on Saturday, May 2nd, 2009. What kind of horses are we looking for?  Many agree it's about who has the pedigree to go 1 1/4 miles, although every year we see top trainers trying to get whatever horses they have to try and stretch out. Sometimes I agree with the pedigree freaks--to me, War Pass kept proving he was not a good candidate for 10 furlongs, and I would have rather seen him get off the Derby trail healthy and sound. In 2008 some pedigree experts said there was no way Big Brown could win the Kentucky Derby--especially after he drew the farthest post out in a field of 20 horses. However, Dr. Steve Roman, creator of the Dosage Index, said Big Brown's Dosage figures were exceptional. Ultimately, it's about what the horse does. Let's see what these ones do... Graded Earnings Count Only the top 20 three-year-olds with the most earnings from Graded stakes can make the field of 20 starters in the Kentucky Derby. What I like about this is that there's something linear and easy to follow about the Derby trail. It's much harder to try and follow other championship races or divisions throughout the year. But, there's always some debate about how one mediocre stakes race with a huge purse can give a lesser contender an undeserved advantage. It doesn't really bother me, it seems like there are always only a few horses in the Derby who don't look like real contenders--and there are always better horses who can't make the field because of other reasons. Besides, I want to win a lot of money on Derby day, and a horseplayer needs a few throw-outs so they can afford to make a good trifecta or superfecta play on a 20-horse field. New! 2009 Kentucky Derby Trail Graded Earnings List 2008 Two-Year-Old Juvenile Stars Bob Baffert's Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Midshipman put himself on the map--it would be cool to have Baffert back on the Derby trail. He won the Kentucky Derby with Silver Charm in 1997, Real Quiet in 1998, and War Emblem in 2002; but hasn't had a strong Derby hopeful since Bluegrass Stakes winner Sinister Minister in 2006 (a couple of years ago he conceded "the only Derby I'm going to right now is the Derby restaurant"). Unfortunately, Midshipman is in Dubai now, to race for Godolphin and target the UAE Derby--but Baffert will have Zayat stables' Pioneerof the Nile , who finished 2 3/4 lengths behind Midshipman in the BC Juvenile. The second and third-place finishers in the BC Juvenile, Square Eddie, and Street Hero, have been earning a lot of respect this year as well. Terrain, fourth in the BC Juvenile and second in the Grade 1 Lane's End Breeders Futurity, has been a promising contender for trainer Albert Stall. Update to include Gallant Son: In a comment to this blog, fellow horseracingfans.net member Afleet_Treat pointed out the seventh-place finisher in the 2008 BC Juvenile, Gallant Son. I'm glad she pointed him out, as Gallant Son is certainly on a campaign for the 2009 Kentuicky Derby . Gallant Son's first step on the 2009 Derby Trail will likely be the Grade 2 Robert B Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita on Saturday, February 7th (not the 2nd as the article states--that was last year). There was almost a blanket finish for fourth in the BC Juvenile, and the difference between fourth and seventh was about a length--you could get a really great price on some good horses from that very competitive field next time out. At Churchill Downs on November 1st, Captain Candyman Can won the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes by three lengths, completing the one-turn mile in a sharp 1:35.16. Captain Candyman Can is trained by Ian Wilkes, and Julien Leparoux was on board for the Iroquois. The Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club is November 29 at Churchill--no nominations published yet. Nominations for the Grade 2 Remsen at Aqueduct aren't in yet, but the race is also coming up pretty soon on November 29th. In California, at Hollywood Park--Maybe something will come out of the Real Quiet Stakes this Saturday, November 8th ( update: Jerry Hollendorfer trainee Chocolate Candy won with Garrett Gomez on board . [ 2008 Real Quiet Stakes replay ] Chocolate Candy is a son of Candy Ride, who was undefeated in six lifetime starts, including the 2003 Pacific Classic in track record time) . The Real Quiet Stakes is not graded, but we're waiting for nominees in the Grade 3 Hollywood Prevue Stakes, which is on November 23; and Hollywood Park's Grade 1 Cashcall Futurity, which is on December 20th ( update: Chocolate Candy is targeting the Cashcall Futurity after his Real Quiet Stakes victory ). IEAH will probably have Stardom Bound on the Oaks trail. Maybe it could end up being the Derby trail. I think she's getting a break the rest of this year. The fillies are always reminding us of how impressive they can be, so if there's a filly like a Rags to Riches who is clearly as good or better than most of her male counterparts, I look forward to the day they run against males and no one can say "but she hasn't beaten the boys yet"... especially as we sit here waiting for the turf writers to deny undefeated four-year-old Zenyatta Horse of the Year honors. Although that may simply be because unlike Curlin, Zenyatta has won on dirt and synthetic, and she didn't lose her division race of the Breeders' Cup Championships, and in her two prior races she didn't walk over a 40-1 longshot like Past the Point (who finished fifth in his next race), or a horse like Wanderin Boy who had to be dropped down among Allowance Optional Claimers to pick up a win this year. That was fun. Back to the 2009 Derby trail... Nicanor - Barbaro's first full-brother Unfortunately, 2006 Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro's full brother Nicanor has been a slow developer and is way off the map, still un-raced. They say he needed more time to mature and he's just been growing--and still training with unofficial works--so if he turns out to be any good maybe he could make his debut in the winter (at Gulfstream or Delaware I imagine). At that point, he would have to romp by open lengths in his debut to get on the fast track to the Kentucky Derby--think of how Curlin won his maiden at three, and just kept opening up on every field in his Derby preps. At the same time, I think Nicanor would also have to win easily like a superhorse to give Matz and the Jacksons the confidence to not treat him like he's something that's just waiting for an accident to happen. (Update: Nicanor is headed to Florida after his first official work since July, 3 furlongs in 38 seconds .) In 2007, Barbaro's half-brother Man In Havana turned out to not have the ability or competitiveness that racehorses are made out, so he was soon retired from racing while Matz developed Centennial Farms' Chelokee on the Derby trail. (I liked Chelokee--and I've had a lot of resent over his accident on the mud.) I did not like Matz's 2008 Derby trail contenders much, and I did give Visionaire a chance only to watch him get beat by Pyro, who went from early Derby future book favorite to a bit of a disappointment, or at least a doubt, later in the year. In 2010, Barbaro's second full-brother Lentenor will be the one we'll hope to see on the Derby trail. Smarty Jones - first crop turns three 2004 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner Smarty Jones has a big crop nearing their third birthday too. We'll see if they can stretch out. The winners so far, including filly Be Smart, have impressed their connections. Keefer is one of Smarty's winning colts, and he's trained by Steve Asmussen for Zayat Stables. So, we'll get a few more possibilities out of upcoming races before this year ends, and there will be a lot more discussions about the Derby trail starting in January. The very first graded stakes of the year is the Tropical Park Derby for three-year-olds, on January first--and of course, all racehorses in the northern hemisphere turn another year older the same day, the two-year-olds now officially three, and eligible for the Kentucky Derby. Start your own stable of Kentucky Derby hopefuls I'll keep track by adding these horses to a virtual stable online, so I'll get e-mailed updates about how they're doing in their workouts and when they're entered in a race--you can set up your own stable alerts like this for free through BRIS or Equibase. Derby Trail Forums What horses do you like on the 2009 Derby trail? Join the forums to discuss horses to watch, and talk about upcoming races on the 2009 Derby trail. Kentucky Derby, Triple Crown, Derby Trail Forums Early 2009 Update A few I added after originally posting this: Big Drama - Delta Jackpot winner This horse survived a race that had a hot early pace, and held off some promising closers. Stimulus Plan - Delta Jackpot third-place. He made the longest move to close up on Big Drama. I don't immediately like closers for the Derby, but I at least think he could come up with a nice score on the Derby trail. I liked the top three in the Delta Jackpot, including West Side Bernie who took third. He's at Gulfstream for the winter. Haynesfield - Steve Asmussen trainee is fast enough to run with or even set the pace, but proved in the 2009 Count Fleet Stakes that he can also strike from off the pace. Uno Mas - A promising Macho Uno colt, he won an Allowance featuring a few other 2009 Derby trail hopefuls, including favorite Friesan Fire, at Fair Grounds. Old Fashioned - Remsen winner I didn't really like the Remsen; Old Fashioned was virtually unchallenged. But, he has potential, and I do really like his trainer Larry Jones. I'm not sure about Well Positioned. He won his maiden by more than 14 lengths, but the rest of the field was empty after the first fraction or so. Nothing chased him late either. Video Replay: Well Positioned wins Madien