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Title: Have you ever heard of this???
Tags: horse racing, horse betting, betting to win, handicapping, handicappers, ha
Blog Entry: From a book called "Win Every Race"..... [Bet you’ve never heard of this before?] It is called “Progression" and “Regression" rates and it works like this…. [Progression] The most-commonly run distance race in North America is the six-furlong sprint race. A six-furlong sprint consists of 6/8ths or 3/4ths of a mile. This means, that the final 1/8 of a six-furlong race (otherwise known as the “Stretch Call”) is 17% of the race. At seven-furlongs it would equate to approximately 14%, and at a flat mile it would equal 12.5%. If a horse were to improve their position within that final eighth by 2 lengths (in a one-mile race), that would equal a progression rate of 25% (12.5x2=25). Now, imagine that you were looking over a horse’s PP’s, and you saw a consistent pattern emerge of this horse always “progressing”. Wouldn’t you feel a bit more confident in betting on such a horse? The answer to that question is a resounding “YES”! On Friday May 30th 2008, I recently wagered on a horse in the 3rd @ Hollywood Park (by the name of True Suggestion), who won like breaking sticks and paid a very generous 11-1. In this particular race only two horses had positive progression rates. The #2 horse True Suggestion and the #1 horse: Vegas Runner. True Suggestion had a score of (+79) and Vegas Runner was a (+42). Below is how I derived True Suggestion’s number. True Suggestion’s pattern of “Progression or “Regression” read as follows: +55, +33, -21, +18, and +18. Then, I simply added all of those numbers together (which went on to equal +103). I then proceeded to add the 103+55 (the 55 being this horse’s last outing), which equaled +158 and divided it by two, which gave me the derived number of (+79). The real beauty behind this numbers system is in the fact that all of the percentages are constant. And, irrespective of whether a horse has recently raced over the turf course instead of the dirt, it has absolutely no barring over these derived rates. [Regression] Naturally, if a horse is showing a consistent pattern of “Regression”, then one can make the assumption; that something may be wrong with that particular horse. In my use of this system, I have rarely come across a race in which every horse has a final number in the negative. Due to this fact, I’m extremely confident in saying that one needs not be overly objective in deciphering these statistics. Starting from most recent race and going down a maximum of four more starts; if a horse’s PP’s look something like this (Example below); here’s how we determine that particular horse’s progression or regression rate. Keep in mind that all you need to be looking at here are the final two parts of any horse’s charted line(s). Let’s call our mythical horse: Big Daddy Dude. Big Daddy Dude: Last start he was 8th (at the deep stretch call) and 5 lengths behind the leader (85) but he finished 9th beaten only 9 lengths. Now, assuming that the race in question was @ 1 mile event, what was his regression rate? A mile race has a progression/regression rate of 12.5 per length gained or lost. Just in case you’re not the most analytically inclined person, you can use any household calculator to figure this out. In this instance, Big Daddy Dude lost 4 lengths inside the final 1/8 of this race. You simply multiply 12.5x4=50. So, a score of (-50) is given to the horse, in this instance. Hypothetically, if he raced his previous four races at six-furlongs, and gained exactly two lengths in all of those four starts, he would have: Four (+34) scores to go long with the one bad (-50) score. His final tally would be (+18). Which for the record….(+18) is a typical good score amongst most claimers. Now that I might have enlightened you a bit more in how one should gauge class and ability, the burden now rests with you to stay cognizant of all of these factors. Signed, Joseph J Tuttle