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Title: Travers Stakes sets up for horseplayers
Tags: TraversStakes Travers Saratoga 2008 MachoAgain HarlemRocker ColonelJohn
Blog Entry: The Travers Stakes has a nice big field this year, with respectable contenders of every running running style: closers like Pyro and Harlem Rocker; early speed from horses like Da 'Tara, Tres Borrachos and Cool Coal Man; and everything in-between from California's Colonel John, the high cruising Tale of Ekati, to the gutsy Macho Again. The 1 1/4 mile distance is the same as the Kentucky Derby, and this Summer Derby features a few prominent vets from this year's run for the roses. The race is being called wide-open, with Pyro the narrow morning line favorite. You really have to come up with a convincing picture of the pace scenario and seperate who that will benefit and who that will vanquish. There should be plenty of value in here for horseplayers, no matter how you go. From the rail... TALE OF EKATI - "Is this the line for Dark Knight?" is one of my least favorite vets from this year's Derby Trail and Triple Crown series. He was able to narrowly steal the Wood Memorial after another stables' rabbit wore out War Pass. Ekati only has about one-and-a-half gears; although his first gear is a pretty good natural high cruising speed that can keep him in the right place at the right time. The Past Performances' running line comment for Ekati in the Belmont is ridiculous: "Pressed 5 wide". How the hell can you press 5 wide--the leader, Da' Tara, was way over at the rail, and there was no one between these two horses. The only horse Ekati was pressing from 5 wide in the Belmont was Big Brown on the outside, who this bum forced to run 6 wide in a 12 furlong race. Then Tagg said Ekati was fine until he got stepped on earlier in the race. Baloney. Eibar Coa made this horse do all this work on pushing Big Brown into the middle of the track around the backstretch--that's why neither of them had anything left after 10 furlongs. The only thing Tale of Ekati was pressing 5 wide in the Belmont was Kent Desormeaux's silks. Edgar Prado is back on the mount for the second time in as many starts since the Belmont. But, there are plenty of faster three-year-olds out there, and some of them are here in the Travers today. If they stay out of trouble, they could plod along for fourth. COLONEL JOHN - "I'm too drunk to taste these oats." He's a tough one to decide on. He likes to keep the pace within his reach, but it can get away from him. Is there going to be enough speed in front of him to set him up? Could be. DA' TARA - "I've got a need for the lead." He's a pretty good front-runner, but after Tale of Ekati helped him steal the Belmont in a mediocre time, he next lost a speed duel with Mint Lane and finished last in the Jim Dandy. There really needs to be an honest pace kept in this race, otherwise, he could get away with this one. TIZBIG - "Tiz the hell am I doing here?" One win in twelve starts. Capable of running up with the pace... and then getting beaten by faster. Just not a good option, except maybe as a gimmick to fill out the back end of a super. MACHO AGAIN - "Man, I really hate that Village People song." This is a gutsy horse, and he beat a good field, including Pyro, in the Jim Dandy last time out. Ever since winning the Derby Trial he has done nothing but rise to the challenge--finishing second to Big Brown in the Preakness. I even thought his fifith-place in the Belmont was pretty nice after what he pulled off in the Preakness, where he broke out of a traffic jam and launched down the stretch like a rocket, beating some determined rivals. He always comes out strong, but settles back off the pace in the middle of the field. He has to be careful about getting into traffic problems here. I can imagine horses like Tizbig backing up late, with someone like Colonel John to get around. But, he's gutsy and I want to use him. On a side note: He had some gas last week, so instead of breezing him, they cautiously jogged him around the track. But, when he returned to the barn, he got loose, and ran around for about three minutes, with nine people trying to catch him. Trainer Dallas Stewart said Macho Again probably gave himself a better workout that way. He's just a cool horse. COOL COAL MAN - "At least my name ain't Coal Play." He should keep the pace honest. Just made a good effort in the Haskell. I really don't think he should last up front. Perhaps he can fill out the exotics. AMPED - "These go to eleven." Nick Zito and Robert LaPenta present tag-team horse racing again, with their third horse in this same race (Da' Tara and Cool Coal Man the other two). Sometimes I don't think this should be allowed, and Amped really does not belong in this company at all. Broke his maiden in his sixth start, after the pace in that softened. Is that what Zito has in mind here? I still cannot see him better than fourth, but I won't use him. HARLEM ROCKER - "That ain't a Chick Webb drum solo, it's just my feet!" Another beautiful gray horse with the same sire as Macho Again, Macho Uno. How about a Macho Uno exacta? Harlem Rocker has great speed, and he can close up like a monster. He might be Pletcher's best three-year-old this year. I'm not too confident about him getting 10 furlongs here yet. When he took his first loss ever in the Queen's Plate trial, he was going over a mile for the first time. The winner and runner up in that race were very respectable, but the connections seemed to blame the Woodbine poly. Coming out of the eight hole with some speed inside, maybe that's what could keep him at a disadvantage. MAMBO IN SEATTLE - "Forget this mambo stuff, I'm bringing back grunge--where's my flannel?" This horse is coming in a little over the top, with some hype out there. The DRF was touting him for finishing a race in a faster time than Macho Again won the Jim Dandy. That's odd coming from the Beyer peddlers who've inspired so many horseplayers to constantly regurgitate the motto "raw time means nothing." Actually, I like raw times. If I had a choice between PPs with no either just raw times or any speed figures, I would get the ones with raw times--I prefer to assess speed, biases, pace advantages and disadvantages myself. Mambo in Seattle is a capable closer, but I have doubts about him being the one to win. TRES BORRACHOS - "Hellboy drinks Tecate, mang!" Took over and held on to an inside lead when he beat Colonel John in the Swaps. They said he relaxed earlier in the race. Sure, that could help, but I'm not convinced he has suddenly turned into some kind of stalker. On dirt he has not been able to last up front or catch up late. From post 10, forget it. I don't think I'll use him at all. PYRO - "I'm currently in the process of burning every copy of Buster Poindexter's 'Hot! Hot! Hot!' that I can find." So, do you think this race sets up for a closer? Lots of pace in here, will it get away from the closers? I am leaning towards that. Pyro was running over a lot of softened pace earlier this year, and although I think he can make a game effort, look what he has to get through from post 11. I tend to think some pressers or stalkers/mid-field-closer types will beat Pyro to the punch. COURT VISION "By the time this guy finishes writing his analysis, he will be just in time to watch the Woodward go off next weekend." Court Vision is a late closer who has been a big disappointment. Slow early pace helped stay in range and finish closer in the Virgina Derby on turf--he got a nose in second. Against a strong pace on dirt, at a track where pace seems to be holding up, I don't like his chance of getting close. If you think too much pace in here will melt itself down, you could come up with a big return using more closers like Court Vision. Maybe I can make a gimmick tri like that, but I think my serious bet will favor something closer to the pace all around. It's definately a big race when I go to sleep too late and wake up too early with the race on my mind; and when I write up an analysis like this. This is really the great thing about starting a blog on horseracingfans.net, it helps to flesh out thoughts about contenders and races. I chose to stay up front with three to beat front runners: HARLEM ROCKER, COLONEL JOHN, MACHO AGAIN - boxed exactas, no gimmicks. Gonna be a good one anyways.